Low Risk Betting System

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One A Day Compounding Experiment

For those with limited resources who want to make this one-a-day system work, the best way is by betting 10% of a starting bank of £100. Your first bet will only be £10 but after nearly a year, you have seen how the betting.

It began with an idea in November 2008 looking for a high strike rate selection strategy. Importantly, the system would have to be very easy to use, very practical (you can place your bets and go), and likely to make a sustained profit over time. One year has passed now, and I have learned a lot which I would like to share with you. The original betting idea was to find a betting strategy which would accommodate the idea of compounding. To recap, by looking to make 2% of your bank (e.g. £100), and doing this day in and day out, you will be looking at a handsome reward over time, because Einstein’s “eighth wonder of the world” -compounding – would take over.

A simple example of compounding can be seen below:

DAY 1 Betting bank of £100. We are looking to make a target profit of 2% of our betting bank every day. Target profit is made. The new betting bank is now £102 (which is £100 plus our 2% target profit which equals £2).

Moving on to DAY 2, and we have a new betting bank of £102. Today we are still looking to make 2% of our betting bank. With our new betting bank at £102, the new target profit today is £2.04. Our target profit for day 2 is met, and our new betting bank becomes £104.04.

• Low Risk Horse Racing Lay Betting System. Throughout the Low-Lay system we’ll be using a “points” system. We will award a horse points on how well it can perform against it’s competitors.
• 1) High profit but high risk - (If your first couple of bets don’t come off then you are on to a loser straight away. 2) Low risk but low profit - (Almost guaranteed to win but unless you have a million pounds to put onthere is no point)I think you will find that this system.

And so it continues. As our betting bank grows, so our target profit per day will grow. This is the essence of compounding.

As the year progressed, the compounding element worked, but was problematic when a one-a-day bet lost. The reason? In order to sustain a high strike rate, inevitably the odds will be short.

So I investigated other staking plans which could be fitted into one-a-day betting and these proved to be very profitable, while at the same time keeping stakes small in proportion to the betting bank. I will be passing on my findings later, but firstly here are some lessons learned after being “in the trenches”, following this one bet a day philosophy day in and day out for a whole year.

How ‘One-A-Day’Works

For those new to one-a-day betting, here is a brief synopsis.

The idea is simplicity itself. What we are looking to achieve here is to find just one bet a day amongst all of the betting opportunities that are available to us. Yes – just one bet a day! That could be football, tennis, greyhounds, horse racing, or any other sporting event.

However, I came to the conclusion that the best place to look for solid bets consistently is in the placeonly horse racing markets.

Why place-only horse racing? It is far easier to pick a horse to finish in the first three places than it is to pick a horse to win only. The place-only market is available via the Tote, at bookmakers such as Paddy Power and Bet365 and at Betfair. Betfair is my preferred option as the prices are far more competitive.

Further, there are many opportunities each given day for place-only betting, where in other markets, there may be no betting opportunities.

One-A-Day improvements

By focusing on just one betting style means that I have picked up a number of tips and tricks which increase the strike rate and keep the profits rolling in.

1. Place-only betting in the horse racing market.

Betfair can offer superb betting opportunities when there are non runners.

Let’s look at a typical eight runner horse race. In the place-only market, you will win if your selection has finished 1^st, 2^nd, or 3^rd.

If there are any horses who are withdrawn from that eight runner race, reducing the field to seven or six, the bookmakers will react in the place-only market and only pay out for 1^st and 2^nd place. BUT Betfair will still pay out on 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd place.

Imagine we have an eight runner race. Two horses are withdrawn. The field is now six runners, so if we bet on the place only market with Betfair, we are encountering a race where any selection we make only has to beat three horses to place. This increases the probability of making a profit.

2 – Let the market do the work for you.

Do not dismiss short-priced favourites. They are short prices for a reason. The market has done the work for you in highlighting these “apparent” sure things. I say “apparent” because it is our job to see if we can find any justification for such short prices. A key factor to the success of one-a-day betting is the focus on short prices. Surely it is easier for a 1/5 shot to win than it is to pick a 5/1 winner every day. A 95% strike rate for the one-a-day selections ensures that you will profit despite the short prices – so make the bookmaker your friend in this instance.

Here is a very recent example:

440 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Barizan, 5/1 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Riptide, 12/1 Royal Max.

DIOMED VERDICT: If running his race then BARIZAN should continue on his merry way. This is the Betting Forecast which you will see at the base of a race card with the Racing Post. Barizan is priced at 2/5. The next best horse is priced at 5/1. The Betting Forecast is showing that there is a gulf in class between the favourite and the rest of the field. Because there are only four runners, Betfair pays out on only the first two places. Barizan is priced at 1.11 to place.

This means that, in order for us to profit, Barizan has to finish 1^st or 2^nd out of four runners. Barizan won the race so the place-only bet was successful.

The market had highlighted this strong favourite for us. 1.11 may not be much of a price, but imagine 365 of those winning over a year!

Football betting

The bookmakers can also point us towards football teams who have an outstanding chance of winning their matches.

As a matter of habit now, I visit www.ladbrokes.com every day, and by clicking on “football”, take note of all football teams priced at 1 /2 or lower. Ladbrokes (who are accurate with their football odds) have highlighted these “apparent” sure things to us, and now it is our job to justify backing at such short odds. www.soccerstats.com and www.betdevil.com are two websites which are superb in showing you football teams’ recent performances, their opponents’ performances, head to heads and much much more. With this information, a short-priced selection highlighted to us by the bookmakers can be justified as a bet, and become a one-a-day bet. These are the main tricks I have picked up over the year. I have also learned, through investigating a number of staking plans, that there are better ways than compounding which really can maximise profits over a year without putting a lot of money at risk.

Money management lessons learned

There are 3 staking plans I would like to present to you which have produced exceptional profits since November 2008 (exceptional profits given that the odds we are focusing on daily are very short).

Level stakes

This staking plan involves betting a set amount every day. I include it as there are no calculations of stakes. Everything is clear. Make your one-a-day bet, and place the stake you have chosen on the selection. Betting a fixed stake of £100 on one chosen bet a day since November 2008 up to October 2009 has produced a profit of £4,091.

POSITIVES – The stake is set so once you have selected your bet, you can bet and go. NEGATIVES – Betting to a fixed stake will not maximize profits as your betting bank grows.

Kelly Staking Plan

I just had to include her, didn’t I! And for good reason. I put the 304 bets I have generated since November 2008 into the Staking Machine (found at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/). The most profitable staking plan was the Kelly Staking Plan. Starting with a betting bank of £1,000, using an expected win percentage of 94 (my actual win percentage is 95%) and a divisor of two, the betting bank as at 17^th October 2009 stands at £12,582. The largest stake was £439 and the average stake was £274. With a 95% strike rate, I personally see no problems with that kind of outlay in proportion to betting bank.

I cannot explain how Kelly Staking Plan calculations are made – I have just left it to the Staking Machine to tell me my new stake.

If you were to follow the one-a-day betting, then I would advise a purchase of the Staking Machine as a way to maximize the profits if this Kelly Staking Plan interests you.

Low Risk Betting System Predictions

Percentage of betting bank

Starting with a £100 betting bank, and a first stake of £10, the betting bank now stands at £5,579 This is betting 10% of your betting bank every day there is a bet. Hence the £10 starting stake. This staking plan encapsulates the power of compounding. Starting small, then letting the stakes increase only as your betting bank increases. This is the staking plan that will appeal to most people because the very first stake is just £10. It will seem as if you are going nowhere in the initial stages because returns are so low, but stakes will rise and profits will rise, and the snowball effect of compounding will take over.

So where to from here?

Low Risk Betting Systemic

I hope I have convinced you that there is a profit to be made from very short-priced bets despite the conventional wisdom telling you otherwise. The key to success is in the approach you take. Blanket backing of all short odds selections will simply not work. BUT if we become ultra selective, and on each given day search out that ONE selection that has the greatest chance of success, be it from a horse racing place-only perspective, or from doing a little research after the bookmakers have highlighted for you a football team most likely to win, then you will profit well a year from now.

For those with limited resources who want to make this one-a-day system work, the best way is by betting 10% of a starting bank of £100. Your first bet will only be £10 but after nearly a year, you have seen how the betting bank has become £5,000+. The high strike rate married with the short odds ensures a steady long-term growth. I have included two other staking plans, one of which will ideally require an investment in staking software such as that found at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/. I refer to the Kelly Staking Plan in this instance, and the investment in the staking software should be adequately compensated by future profits.

Low Risk Betting System Chart

I have kept a diary of this experiment and urge anybody interested to look through previous days and months and see how I have approached making one-aday selections. The diary can be found at www.backlay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com and will teach you a lot.

Now is an ideal time to try this out for yourself. I managed a 95% strike rate over the year and fully intend replicating this for a new 12 month cycle -hopefully, with a little help from Kelly, who knows? Fancy turning £100 into £5,000+ in the next 12 months?

Show Betting System

Soon to launch! I’ve been publishing my One-ADay tips on my blog for the last year for free. I wanted to prove – beyond any doubt – that slow and steady really can win the race. Bolstered by the long term success (and encouragement from followers) I have now decided to continue publishing my One-A-Day selections to those who are interested. So, very soon, I will be launching a full membersonly service. If you want to guarantee a place, then please got to www.canonburypublishing.com/placeback/ and sign up. I’ll send you full details as soon as we launch.