How To Bet For Football Games

The sports betting industry is on a meteoric rise in this country and we’re approaching one of the first NFL seasons where it will be possible to legally wager on most games outside of Nevada. Even in a largely illegal market, the American Gaming Association estimated that bettors wagered over $4.3 billion on Super Bowl LV alone.

With ample time between games and a wealth of strategy to consider, football is an understandably popular sport for mainstream bettors. Using analytics to gain an edge in predicting how games will unfold can help the savvy bettor go against the grain to earn big paydays. Conversely, the popularity of NFL betting can help bettors isolate a potential winner by piggybacking on research conducted by the masses.

This page can serve as a reference for residents of states that have legalized online betting. It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season.

NFL team betting guides

Live betting on NFL games allows you to place bets during the game as opposed to traditional wagers that must be closed out prior to kick-off. Simply look for the live betting tab or button within the sportsbook's menu. You can then choose the live bets you are interested in. Keep in mind that not all games offer live betting options. Gamblers can also target the overall betting total of a game, which is usually listed as a number around 48.5 with the proposition of taking the Over or Under on a point total. Some sites offer the opportunity to bet on the expected point total of one team (23.5 points for example).

Where is NFL betting legal?

When the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May of 2018, it opened the door for individual states to legalize sports gambling. Beginning with New Jersey (the original plaintiff in the PASPA case), several states quickly moved to legalize and regulate the industry within state lines. Betting on the NFL and other professional sports is still not federally legal, but residents of the following states can place bets at live sportsbooks:

Nevada
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Delaware
Mississippi
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Arkansas
Iowa
New York
Oregon
Indiana
Illinois
Montana

Most other states in the US have introduced some sort of bill that would legalize sports gambling. Of course, some states are far closer than others to legalizing the industry. Visit our state betting pages at TheLines.com to get a look at the status in each state.

Best NFL betting sites and apps

There are a number of apps available for sports betting in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana, West Virginia and Nevada. Some of the best:

The top players in the industry are DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, and SugarHouse.

How does NFL betting work?

There are several ways to bet on NFL action. We’ll begin with the most simple type of bet: The moneyline. Taking the Moneyline means you’re betting on the winning team regardless of the margin of victory. Underdogs will get plus-odds on the moneyline and the favorites will have negative odds. For example, if a team is heavily favored they will be listed as Patriots (-230), meaning that a successful $230 bet on the Patriots pays out $100.

This differs from betting on the point spread, which accounts for the expected margin of victory. If the Patriots are heavily favored at home, they might be listed as -13.5, meaning a bet (likely at something close to -110 odds) on the Pats would only pay out if they win by 14 points or more.

Gamblers can also target the overall betting total of a game, which is usually listed as a number around 48.5 with the proposition of taking the Over or Under on a point total. Some sites offer the opportunity to bet on the expected point total of one team (23.5 points for example).

Then, there is often an extensive number of betting props (or propositions) where gamblers can wager on the individual performance of a player, the type of score to open a game, and the specific margin of victory. These options are often more expansive in prime time and playoff games.

Gamblers can choose to combine multiple propositions on a game, or multiple bets on different games, into a parlay. This wager is an all-or-nothing proposition which only pays out if all (anywhere between two and a dozen) bets are successful. The more bets added to a parlay, the greater the potential payout.

A teaser is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you can adjust the point spread or total to your specifications. These bets are therefore more likely to succeed, but the payouts are smaller than in a parlay.

Finally, there is an option to bet on NFL futures. Rather than betting on an individual game, Futures offer gamblers the opportunity to bet on the eventual Super Bowl champion, divisional champion, or the number of wins that a team will accrue during the regular season. There are also futures bets available on postseason awards and other ongoing storylines.

Super Bowl odds 2022

NFL live betting

Another method of wagering on the NFL is live betting, also known as in-play betting. No longer are gamblers required to place their bets before opening kickoff and ride out the storm. Now users can watch a game unfold for one, two, or three quarters and place their bets based on updated odds.

The odds on online sportsbooks will shift throughout games and sometimes it won’t be possible to place a live bet until a team finishes their current drive and the odds can solidify. This can be a very effective method for the experienced sports fan. Those who can read how a game is unfolding in the opening minutes can target a line aggressively.

For example, the most recent Super Bowl between the Patriots and Rams turned into an offensive quagmire where neither team appeared poised to rack up many points. Those viewers that read into game flow and placed a bet on the Under (even as it shifted lower) were rewarded by a comfortable payout in a game that ended 13-3.

NFL betting trends

There are several free sites that will disclose information on where the public is betting in terms of the moneyline, point spread, and point total. These trends can lead to a shift in the lines as sportsbooks try to adjust when too much money is coming in on one side or the other.

These trends can also indicate which side of the line is a better bet based on the sheer number of bets coming in. However, the percentage of bets coming in on one side or the other is often not as telling as the percentage of money coming in on one side of the line.

A ton of bets indicates that the reactive public expects a favorite to roll, but a ton of money on one side indicates that experienced gamblers or “sharps” have found something in their research to inspire confidence.

Following the money usually profits, but there is a high level of risk and reward in “contrarian handicapping” by going against the public and backing an underdog at plus odds.

NFL line shopping

With so many sportsbooks and platforms competing for your wagers, there’s no reason not to shop around for the best deal. Some sites might have a team with a line of -4 (-110) on a particular game, but another site could have the same team at -3.5 (+120). There is generally an industry standard, but even a sleight differentiation can lead to huge changes in dividends in the long run. It’s vital for bettors to shop lines on multiple sites even if they don’t have a huge bankroll. If that’s the case, simply decrease the amount you’re betting on each game.

You can also shop lines by timing when you place your bets. Oddsmakers will set an Opening Line early in the week, but that could change based on how the public bets the game. Sometimes it makes sense to hammer an Opening Line right away so that you get the best odds possible. For example, the Packers could open at -7 at home against a poor opponent, but after 90% of bets come in on Green Bay, that number could rise. Conversely, the underdog might become appealing late in the week if the spread rises to 13 or even 14 points. Waiting for the right line can create the perfect opportunity to bet against the public at even better odds.

NFL Betting Tips

Bet On Football Games Legally

Finding a betting formula

Consistent success in NFL betting is hard to come by, since sportsbooks are often eerily accurate in how they set Spreads and Point Totals. In order to turn a profit, bettors have to find their own formula for determining value and potential winners.

It’s possible to “follow the masses” by betting on favorites that are seeing a huge percentage of wagers, but it is far more reliable to analyze trends and look for value based on those raw numbers.

As the season progresses, it can become apparent which teams have a tendency to “play down” to their opponent. Certain teams tend to play better when going up against heavy favorites, and many teams tend to play better or worse in prime time games. Analyzing a teams’ recent travel schedule, results on the road vs. at home, and tendency to rebound after a loss (see Bill Belichick’s Patriots) can help bettors find a winning formula.

There are certain analytics available for free on many sites that can help you predict how a game will unfold. Here are some of the key analytics that we use to predict game flow:

• Pace (the average number of plays a team runs per game) – This can primarily help you identify fast-paced games that are likely to go Over the total, or slow-paced games that will go Under.
• Offensive efficiency – Especially in the red zone, offensive efficiency can serve as a great indicator for which teams are capable of finishing drives with touchdowns and therefore covering the spread. Pass yards per attempt is another indicator of which teams are successful on offense in terms of controlling possession and creating points.
• Turnovers – On the other side of the ball, teams with great defensive efficiency in the red zone may help games stay under the point total. Teams that have shown an ability to create turnovers are far more bankable in terms of hanging close in games and potentially stealing a game when they’re underdogs.
• Win Probability – This is an advanced tool that can help tremendously with live betting. Algorithms can provide the likelihood of a team holding on for the win and that makes for a very safe bet.
• DVOA – There are comprehensive numbers on how defenses perform against specific position groups. There are also numbers on how an offensive line performs in terms of creating space at the second level and whether defensive lines are stronger on the right or left side. Match up the numbers from each team to consider whether star players will have more of an impact and sway the outcome.
• Home Field Advantage – Teams such as the Packers, Chiefs, Saints, and Patriots have a tremendous home-field advantage for several reasons. Lofty point spreads in those venues should be considered with more weight than a lofty point spread for a team like the Bengals, for example.

Each game brings its own criteria in terms of analytics and there is almost always ample time to crunch the numbers and find an edge.

NFL betting mistakes to avoid

Sports gambling can be a destructive force and should not be taken lightly or considered as a main source of income for anyone but the most experienced handicappers. Here’s a list of a few of the pitfalls that can turn a harmless habit into a money-draining problem:

• Chasing your losses: Gamblers can be overcome by a need to be “made whole” after losing their initial bet. This can be problematic during NFL Sundays since there is a new wave of games starting at 4 p.m. EST and two prime time games providing the opportunity to go “double or nothing” after an unsuccessful run in the early games.
• Managing bankroll: Again, the spreads and totals assigned by sportsbooks are often extremely accurate in terms of the final result, which means that few bets are a “sure thing.” Gamblers need to manage their bankroll wisely and avoid betting big on too many games regardless of their confidence level.
• Emotional betting: While gambling on NFL games should be fun, it’s not fun to lose your money because you were afraid to bet against your hometown team. Gamblers should always bet based on data, trends, and their gut feeling, rather than by their allegiances as fans.
• Hoping for longshots: It’s important to get good odds on a wager, but taking a bet that has little chance to come to fruition is not a reliable method. A horse with 50/1 odds would certainly pay out handsomely in the Kentucky Derby, but there’s a reason nobody expects that horse to have a shot at winning the race.
• Banking on favorites: Conversely, it’s unwise to always follow the public and take the more popular team with your wagers. Things change on a weekly basis in the NFL and teams always find a way to surprise. Remember that the other guys get paid too, and they’ll fight to the final whistle to post a more respectable score and potentially get under a lofty point spread.
• Betting while impaired: Again, NFL Sunday is a time to relax and enjoy a few adult beverages, but don’t get carried away while intoxicated. Accept losses when they come and avoid becoming overconfident because you’re feeling loose and unafraid of losing a few hundred dollars.

Online betting vs. retail sportsbooks

Few states have legalized online betting within state borders because it’s so difficult to regulate. But if you’re in a state with legal online betting, there are clear benefits to that platform. While retail sportsbooks will only accept bets before a game kicks off, online betting sites allow users to bet throughout the contest and adjust to live odds. The convenience of betting from your phone or laptop is hard to beat. That’s why live sportsbooks will offer promotions and try to enhance the in-game experience in order to draw in more numbers.

How to watch NFL games

Every Sunday select NFL games are broadcast on local TV. Viewers can watch any game by purchasing the Sunday Ticket through DirectTV, or the scoring highlights and exciting finishes compiled by the Red Zone channel. There are also options to stream NFL games through various online platforms. During the 2019-2020 season there will be Thursday Night Football games from Week 1 to Week 15 that will be broadcast on FOX and NFL Network. Sunday Night Football games are broadcast on NBC and ESPN carries Monday Night Football games.

If you’re new to football betting and looking to learn all the different types of wagers available to you and how they work, you’ve come to the right place! If you’re already familiar with how betting on games works and are just looking for the best places to bet online, check out our best betting sites page, where you’ll find everything from 100% sign-up bonuses, live betting and discounted odds. Got questions? Email predictem@gmail.com! We’re happy to help!

The Point Spread

The most popular football bet is the point spread (aka: line, straight bets, side). In most cases, one team is likely to be favored over another. There are many reasons for this, with the main reason being one team is viewed as better than their opponent. Oddsmakers differentiate the two by creating a point spread. At first glance, it can be very confusing. Here’s an example of what you may see at a sportsbook and how to understand it:

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 -110

San Francisco 49ers +1.5 -110

The road team is always listed first. The home team is always listed second (on the bottom). The team with the minus sign (-) next to their name is the favorite. The team with the plus sign (+) is the underdog in the matchup. In the case above, KC is favored as a -1.5 fav over the Niners.

The easiest way to explain how the NFL point spread works is to take the final score of the game and subtract -1.5 if you took the Chiefs or add +1.5 if you took SF. Let’s use Super Bowl LIIV (54) as an example;

The final score of the game was Chiefs 31 - 49ers 20. Using the example above, if you bet on the Chiefs, you would subtract -1.5 from their score. This would give them a score of 29.5. For betting purposes, the score of this game would be KC 29.5 - SF 20. Your Chiefs’ bet would be a winner.

If you bet on San Fran, you would add +1.5 to their score. For wagering purposes, your final score would be KC 31 - SF 21.5. Your SF bet would be a loser.

Note: You only add or subtract points to or from the team you have placed a wager on.

Now let’s use an example of a game with a line (spread) where one team won the game straight up but lost against the spread:

Green Bay Packers +4.5

Dallas Cowboys -4.5

Let’s say you gambled on the Cowboys, and they won the game 24-20. You would then subtract -4.5 from their score, giving them a new score of 19.5. With GB scoring 20, your bet on Dal is a loss by a half-point, 20-19.5.

On the flip side, if you had placed a wager on the Pack, you would add +4.5 to their final score, which would make them a 24.5-20 winner.

Lastly, the -110 you see next to each team is the vigorish (aka: Juice) the bookie charges. Bookmakers charge a commission. That’s how they make their money. In a perfect world, the “vig” would be listed as $1.10 because it would be much easier to understand! The easiest way to explain the -110 is that you have to lay/risk $1.10 for every $1.00 you’re trying to profit. Another way to put it is you have to risk $110 for every $100 you’re trying to win.

It should be noted that if you win your bet, you get your full staked amount back in addition to your winnings. It should also be noted that while -110 odds is the sports betting industry standard, there are a few betting sites that operate similar to Walmart, offering their product at a steep discount (-105 odds). When penciled out, betting on games at reduced juice blows away any sign-up bonus you can get. What it boils down to is you’re saving $5 for every $100 you’re trying to win. A $100 bettor may play ten games in a weekend. That’s fifty dollars in savings! Now multiply that by 52 weeks in a year. A guy would save over $2500 in risked amount! You can find this great offer at 5Dimes Sportsbook. When you register, you’ll be asked to choose a signup bonus or reduced odds. It’s a no brainer to roll with the discounted odds option.

For those inquisitive about the Bookmaker end of the deal, in his perfect world, you would bet the Packers, and I would bet the Cowboys for the same amount. We both bet $110 to win $100. You win, get your $110 back plus your $100 win. I lose, he takes my $110. He’s essentially arbitraged the situation where he was going to get $10 off of one of us without any risk to himself.

Rotation Numbers

We often get asked what the three numbers are to the left of each team. These are called “Rotation Numbers”. The purpose of these numbers is to avoid confusion when at the sportsbook or when calling in your bets. While you know exactly what you’re looking to bet, the ticket writer doesn’t, therefore these numbers make the process easier for him to undersand. In turn, the isk of him making an error goes way down. If you say “I’d like to put $500 on the Cardinals”, he has no idea if you’re referring to the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team, Louisville Cardinals college basketball team or the Arizona Cardinals football team. He also has no clue whether you’re talking point spread, money line, first quarter bet, halftime bet or even a proposition wager. By giving the rotation number, there leaves nothing in question. Most Las Vegas Sportsbooks prefer and appreciate you using rotation numbers opposed to telling the ticket writer what you’re looking to bet. It’s simply the proper etiquette.

Moneyline Bets

A “money line bet” is a fancy word for picking the winner straight up (no point spread involved). This is a great option, especially when you consider that NFL teams aren’t playing to cover the spread for you, they’re just trying to win the game. It’s an even better proposition if you’re confident that the underdog has a strong chance of winning the game straight up, as, with this bet, you can profit more than you risk! Let’s take a look at an example of a money line wager:

New York Giants +170

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -200

Moneylines are always based on $100. If you bet the team with the (+), you’re risking a hundred dollars to win whatever the plus amount is, which in this case is $170. If you wager on the team with the minus sign, you’re risking that amount to win $100. In the example above, you’d be risking two hundred dollars to win one hundred dollars. As with any football wager, you always get your risked amount back in addition to your winnings.

For those curious about the relativity between point spreads and money lines, check out our point spread to moneyline conversion chart where we give examples on what the ML would be on point spreads from two to ten points.

Totals

Totals, also known as “Over/Under” bets, are the simplest form of betting on football. You’re simply picking whether the total combined points scored by both teams goes over or under the posted line. Let’s take a look at an example:

Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers 49.5 -110

Let’s say the Chiefs win the game 24-20. The total points scored by both teams adds up to 44. This would result in the bet being graded as a loser because it failed to go over by 5.5 points. As noted above in the point spread section, the -110 means you have to risk $1.10 for every $1.00 you’re trying to win. As usual, you get your staked amount back if you win.

Note: Sometimes, you’ll see odds like Over +100/Under -120. This is because the bookmaker is either getting heavy one-sided action and is trying to create balance or has taken a stance on the game and likes one side more than the other and is trying to lure people in so he can take a stronger position on his pick.

Tip: Most sportsbooks have much lower limits on totals than they do for spread betting. What does this tell us? The over/under bet is easier to beat! Keep this in mind when deciding which route to take during your NFL handicapping!

Parlays

A parlay is a sports bet where you pick anywhere from 2-15 teams, and each selection needs to win in order for your betting ticket to cash. The allure of parlay bets is the big payouts.

Parlay Payout Odds

If one (or more) of your football picks pushes (ties), the parlay drops down one level. If you have a 2-team parlay and get a push, the bet drops down to a straight wager.

A parlay bet can consist of point spreads, over/unders, and moneylines. Some bookies won’t allow a side and total from the same game to be parlayed. This type of bet is called a correlated parlay. If your bookmaker doesn’t allow correlated parlays, we highly recommend looking for greener pastures!

Note: For those of you with a “lottery mentality”, 5Dimes Sportsbook offers 25 team parlays!

Another type of parlay bet is a “Round Robin”. This is similar to boxing horses in horse betting. With this bet, you pick a handful of teams, and the bookie ties them all together for you in 2, 3, or 4 team combinations that cover every single combo. You don’t have to do 2,3’s and 4’s. You can choose to do just 2’s. Most sportsbooks allow you to select 3-10 teams on an NFL Sunday.

Teasers

A teaser bet is similar to a parlay in that you have to bet on two or more teams, and they all have to win in order to cash, however, with this type of wager, you get to move the line anywhere in between 5 and 20 points. Moving the point spread in the direction you choose obviously increases your chances of winning, and the odds reflect this as well. A 2-team parlay would pay 2.6 to 1 odds. A 2-team 7-point teaser has you laying -130 odds.

Here’s an example of standard teaser odds:

Teaser Payout Odds

Sportsbooks have different rules for teaser bets, so it’s in your best interest to read the fine print before partaking in this activity. You’ll find everything from ties reducing to the next level, ties winning, and ties pushing. It really all depends on which betting website you’re using.

Pleasers

Pleaser bets should be called Kamikaze wagers because they will cause major damage to your bankroll, and you have very little chance of surviving. A pleaser is a parlay style bet where you select one or more teams, and it’s just the opposite of a teaser. Instead of moving the point spread in your favor, you’re moving it out of your favor. Example: The Kansas City Chiefs are -10. If you select them as a pick in your 7-point pleaser, you’re now laying -17. An example of an underdog pleaser pick would be the Houston Texans at +7. If you throw them into your 7-point pleaser, their spread would now be a pick’em.

The payouts for these bets are enormous. A two team seven-point pleaser bet pays 7-1 odds. A five team 7-point pleaser bet pays 180-1. I’ve been in this industry for over 20 years and have yet to meet anybody who can beat this wager consistently. It’s hard enough to pick one winner ATS in the National Football League, much less move the line against yourself and then try to pick multiple games correctly. These bets are for degenerate gamblers only!

Prop Bets

Short for “proposition bets”, (aka: Exotic Bets) these are wagers on outcomes not associated with the point spread, total, or money line. This type of wager can be (but not limited to):

• Quarterback to throw for the most yards
• QB to throw for the longest touchdown
• Running Back to rush for the most yardage
• RB to go over or under a certain amount of yards
• Wide Receiver to catch the longest reception
• WR to score the longest TD
• Tight End to have the most receiving yards
• Kicker to boot the longest field goal
• Team to have the most first downs
• Will an AFC or NFC team win the Super Bowl
• Coin Toss

These are just a handful of examples of thousands of different types of proposition wagers. Often, you’ll see a huge menu of “props” offered for high profile football games such as the Super Bowl, Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.

Tip: These bets have very low limits because they’re easier to beat. However, always beware of something that looks too good to be true. Many sucker bets are likely to be on the card. I once lost a prop bet for most points scored between backup NBA point guard Howard Eisley and NBA All-Star Charles Barkley. Somebody knew something, and it wasn’t me!

Futures Wagers

As the name implies, “Futures” are bets that are pending for an extended period of time in the future. Examples of futures bets: Team to win division, conference championship, division winner, rookie of the year, and player to be taken first in the NFL draft. You can even bet on which two teams will meet in the Super Bowl. The most popular football futures bet is “Team to win the Super Bowl”.

The great thing about futures bets is that they offer huge payouts, they’re fun, and you can have something to root for long term for as little as fifty cents.

Buying Points

Many online sportsbooks will allow you to “buy points” on a single wager. Most Vegas books will let you buy up to two points. This generally costs around 10 cents per half point, with the exception of moving the number on or off the 3, which is more expensive. Some sportsbooks like 5Dimes let you buy a ton of points. As I write this, I’m looking at a KC Chiefs Week 1 spread where they’re laying 11 points, and you can buy them to +4 for -2222 odds. Before considering such a proposition, keep in mind that if you lose a bet like this, you have to win 22.2 times in a row just to break even. I know some grinders who have tried to game this system, and all of them busted out.

A good time to buy points is when you feel like you have an edge against the house (your information is better than theirs), and you’re in a position where you can be on the right side of a key number (common final score margin).

Another good time to buy points (although it’s costly and may not be sustainable long term) is to buy off the 3. With such a high percentage of football final score margins landing on 3, a sharp bettor/wiseguy can oftentimes gain an advantage.

How NOT to Bet on Football

Many square football bettors will advocate for the Martingale System, going as far as calling it a “sure thing”. The Martingale Betting System is a fancy name for “doubling up after you lose.” The problem with this is that you will eventually hit a losing streak and bust out. The system may seem reliable because you’ll more than likely pile up a bunch of wins; however, a losing streak is inevitable at some point. When it comes to the NFL, the Martingale System is a muffed punt, fumble and interception all tied up in one. This style of betting is that monster under your bed when you were a kid and will bankrupt you.

NFL betting is TOUGH. Try to stick to just picking one single game. Take it from a professional football gambler who failed at everything for the first ten years and gained wisdom from the process.

More advice: It may be tempting to unload on a game, but you should never put more than 10% of your bankroll on any single game. Never have more than 20% of your bankroll in play on any given day. Highs and lows are going to happen. Proper bankroll management is essential if you want to beat the bookie.

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In Closing

How To Bet For Football Games Free

It’s mind blowing how many people ask us how point spreads work and within a week think it’s easy and they’re going to get rich. Posh sportsbooks weren’t built on winners and bookies drive Cadillacs for a reason. While it helps to be a fan and know a lot about the game, the fact is 98% of people lose at NFL betting. There’s much more to it than thinking one team is better than the other. You have to take offensive lines into account, defensive lines, secondaries, player speed ratings, injuries, coaching styles, weather, key numbers and a whole bunch of other variables into account if you plan on winning long term. Most can’t do this because they have 9-5 jobs and families. Football handicapping is more than a full time job. If you find that you’re not able to win on your own, check out our free picks page or our affordable expert picks prescription service. We do this full time and know what we’re doing.

NFL Football Picks

Las Vegas Football Bets Online

• Super Bowl Proposition Bets – Best Bets at BAS
• Top Super Bowl 55 Prop Bets & Picks at Bovada
• Chiefs vs. Bucs Super Bowl Pick ATS
• Super Bowl 55 Pick: Chiefs vs. Bucs
• Super Bowl LV Total Pick